Is Everyone Buying Right Now?
Yes. It's a stampede. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates expect 2.47 million containers to arrive in July, which would break the all-time monthly record set in May 2022. Shipments from China alone were up 27 percent in June, per Descartes.
The trigger is a date. The flat 10 percent tariff surcharge on imports expires July 24. The real hit comes with its replacement, expected in August, with rates that vary by country. Importers buying from China, Vietnam, India, and Thailand are expected to pay more. Nobody knows the final numbers yet. So orders are being pulled forward to land before the change.
This Has Happened Before
We've seen this movie before. In 2018, many importers rushed inventory ahead of tariff hikes that were later delayed. They paid freight rates and carried excess inventory for months.
That is the risk with buying against a rate nobody has seen. The rate can change. The date can change. What does not change is the bill for buying early. And buying early only pays if the tariff you avoid is bigger than what you spend to avoid it. So the question that actually matters is a different one. Can you afford to carry what you are buying? Three costs decide the answer.
Freight Costs: Highest Since September 2024
The Drewry World Container Index puts the cost of moving a forty-foot container at $4,639 as of July 9, up more than 60 percent from a year ago. Ships leaving Asia are full through July. Everyone rushing the deadline is paying this premium.
And the tariff being dodged is small. The proposed replacement rate is 12.5 percent, up from 10 percent today. That is 2.5 percentage points, or $2,500 on a container holding $100,000 of goods. Shipping that same container from Shanghai to Los Angeles now costs about $6,500 - more than double what it cost in mid-May.
Idle Inventory: Storing Goods for Months
Holiday goods landed in July to beat the deadline won't sell until November and December. That can mean four to five months of paying for storage and insurance. And the whole market is doing it at once.
The same forecast that shows a July record shows the drop coming after it. August, September, and October volumes are all expected to fall. Everyone will be sitting on stock, waiting on a shopper whose spending is far from certain.
Expensive Cash: Will It Get More Expensive?
This is the quietest cost, and it makes the other two heavier. At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent but turned hawkish. Nine of eighteen officials now expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. Six expect at least two. The Fed also raised its inflation forecast for the year to 3.6 percent.
In plain terms, borrowing is likely to cost more soon. That makes locking in material now feel smart, and for many importers it is. But every container that lands early turns cash into boxes in a warehouse. The money to carry those boxes is about to get pricier, right when importers need more of it.
So, Who Should Be Buying?
The importer whose goods carry a high value per container, because the tariff saved scales with cargo value while the freight premium does not. The importer whose stock sells through quickly instead of sitting until December. And the importer who has already lined up the cash to carry it.
If all three are true, buying early is a reasonable hedge. If none are, the deadline is not a reason to buy. It is a reason to wait.
The One Thing an Importer Controls
The new tariff rate is Washington's call. Shipping prices follow the crowd. The Fed will do what the Fed does. None of that is in an importer's hands.
What is in their hands is the cash plan. A company that lines up its working capital before placing the order can buy early and carry the stock without squeezing payroll or suppliers. A company that buys first and sorts out the cash later is making the same bet with no cushion.
Buying now might well be the right call. It only works for the importers who can afford to carry what they buy.
