Democrats take Congress in January. Existing aluminum tariffs remain in place, and small drinks brands are planning their 2027 can deals now.
On Tuesday, Democrats won both the House and the Senate. In Canada, the head of the aluminum industry said he is more optimistic than ever. For a small drinks brand signing next year's can contract this month, the question is simpler: will any of this lower the price of a can?
The Cost Moved to the Can
American buyers pay the global aluminum price plus the Midwest Premium, a benchmark reflecting delivery costs, tariffs, and US supply and demand. It passed $1 a pound in January. The Brewers Association estimated in August that tariffs accounted for roughly 30% of the delivered primary aluminum price. That is the metal price, not the price of a finished can.
Buying American does not automatically avoid the pressure. US-made cans, including those made with recycled metal, are exposed to connected aluminum markets. Cans carried nearly 80% of craft beer volume sold in stores in 2025.
Same Can, Different Price
Big brands can negotiate large orders. Small brands have less purchasing power and less room to pass higher packaging costs to customers.
The number of breweries fell 1.8% in the year to June 2026, and craft distilleries saw closures outpace openings. Weaker demand is already a problem. More expensive packaging adds another pressure.
Where the Cash Goes
Some small brands buy in bulk to manage costs. Their next contracts could lock in today’s prices.
Take an illustrative brand buying 2 million empty cans a year at 12 cents each: $240,000. A 25% price rise makes that $300,000. Buy six months upfront and $150,000 goes out at once instead of $25,000 a month. Compared with buying monthly, an extra $125,000 initially sits in cans for the next five months. This example excludes storage and financing costs.
What the Vote Changes, and When
The new Congress starts in January. But the election itself does not remove the president’s aluminum tariffs. A repeal bill can be vetoed, and overriding a veto takes two-thirds of members voting in each chamber, with a quorum present. Neither party’s projected seats give it that margin on its own.
A deal with Canada is another possible path. Canada accounted for 70% of US primary aluminum imports in 2024. Prices already react to that possibility. In August, the premium fell sharply on reports of possible tariff reductions for certain Canadian aluminum.
Relief may come. Whether it arrives before your 2027 can contract is signed remains uncertain.
Before The Next Order
Your 2027 contract. A fixed price protects you if costs rise but can shut you out of a fall. A shorter term or a price tied to a benchmark can leave room for relief, while also exposing you to increases. Check which costs the formula actually covers.
Your cash. How much does a bulk order tie up, and for how long?
If you need a hand funding a bulk order, Drip Capital offers working capital financing of up to $3 million, subject to approval and product terms. Happy to chat through your 2027 plans. Get in touch with Drip Capital.
